Potential Economic Consequences from an Event at the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station (S.O.N.G.S.) Interim Spent Fuel Storage Installation
A Whitepaper by Richard McCann and Elizabeth Stryjewski
Sponsored by the Samuel Lawrence Foundation
The San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station (S.O.N.G.S.) operated for 44 years from 1968 to2012.
The first unit of the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station (S.O.N.G.S.) began operation in 1968
Economic scale of the Southern California region
Located in San Diego on Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton and adjacent to Interstate 5 (I-5)the S.O.N.G.S. facility has the potential to impact the three coastal counties of San Diego
Drawing Lessons from Fukushima Tsunami Disaster Impacts
The recent nuclear disaster at the Fukushima Facility in Japan in 2011 provides a
In 2017, the Japan Center for Economic Research found that the total cost of the
The cost of cleanup at the site alone was estimated in 2016 to be $180 billion. In addition,5supply chain networks throughout Japan were impacted by the evacuation of
Analysis of Economic Consequences
A major disaster at the S.O.N.G.S. Interim Spent Fuel Storage Installation would have
IMPLAN is a widely-accepted economic analysis tool used to value the net income
Input-output models such as IMPLAN
The 50-mile exposure zone for the S.O.N.G.S. Interim Spent Fuel Storage Installation
In addition, a 50-mile radius from the S.O.N.G.S. facility would also include the smaller Port of San Diego. Since there are no reliable estimates of the economic cost of a port closure in San Diego, we do not explicitly call this out in this analysis, resulting in a more conservative estimate. However, to the extent that Port of San Diego activities
While the tourism industry is included in the general economic activity that is analyzed
A majority of Orange County is covered in
Los Angeles County would only be impacted under the 50-mile scenario, and then only 6%
As with the port closures, the loss in tourism activity is incorporated into the IMPLAN
REAL ESTATE ASSETS
We estimate the total residential real estate value that is within the 10- and 50-mile radii of the S.O.N.G.S. Interim Spent Fuel Storage Installation based on the average assessed real
Measure of Potential Regional Economic Impacts
IMPACTS TO A ONE-MILE RADIUS
Estimating the impacts for the area within one-mile of the S.O.N.G.S. facility requires speculative assumptions about responses to closure of the I-5 corridor transportation network. A review of the economic activity data within the ZIP code that encompasses S.O.N.G.S. shows that there would be negligible impacts to the regional economy. The I-5 corridor carries significant amounts of daily traffic and freight, both vehicular and rail, between the Orange and San Diego Counties metropolitan areas, but those regions are also connected via I-15 and 17 other inland routes. While I-5 would be disrupted for a period time, without substantial transportation network modeling it is not possible to estimate the economic consequences with the tools used here.18
How the state would respond to the closure of I-5 is not known. However, California did learn from its slow response to the 1989 Loma Prieto earthquake that affected the San Francisco Bay Area by quickly jumping to action after the 1994 Northridge earthquake in Los Angeles. The I-10Santa Monica Freeway collapsed, forcing the rerouting of an average 341,0 00 vehicles per day. The lost business due to its closure was estimated at $1 million per day ($1.7 million in 2018dollars). The state is sued an incentive-based contract that brought repair of the highway 19 within 66 days at a cost of $30 million. We could expect a similar effort if the highway 20 appears to be closed for a prolonged period.
If we assume that the travel cost delays from congestion and rerouting are of similar magnitude per vehicle as experienced after the Northridge earthquake, we can provide a ballpark estimate for a one-year closure of I-5. Scaling the I-10 daily impacts to the traffic volume on I-5 in 2018 dollars leads to an estimated regional cost of $730,0 00 per day. Over a one-year period, that would cost $266 million.
If the closure was expected to be over a long duration, we expect that (1) alternative routes would be constructed at an unknown cost, and (2) households would relocate to avoid crossing the area on a regular basis. For example, an individual working in Santa Ana who lived in Carlsbad would likely either find a job in San Diego County or move to Orange County. Given that households likely would swap positions, it is not possible to estimate the costs from those relocations.
The Marine base at Camp Pendleton has located all of its built facilities a substantial distance away from S.O.N.G.S., as well as the access points. Except for operations of an unknown nature near the coast, there is no evidence that Camp Pendleton operations would be significantly affected by an accident in the small-scale scenario examined.
IMPACTS TO 10-MILE AND 50-MILE RADII
In this case, we are interested in the overall economic activity within individual ZIP codes that fall within the 10- and 50-mile radii of the S.O.N.G.S. facility. We consider this the economic impact of a mass evacuation. IMPLAN provides the total Gross Regional Product for the affected area, total employment, and total personal income for each ZIP code that we identified to fall in the 10- and 50-mile radii. These are aggregated to create the single-year impact of an evacuation, as shown in Table 4 and Table 5 below. The 50-year estimate is a simple present value calculation using the Office of Management and Budget’s 30-year nominal interest rate of2.8 %.22.
For the scenario of an accident with an impact zone of 10 miles shown in Table 5, the loss in GRP would be $6.2 billion and the loss of 53,0 00 jobs. If the zone was evacuated for 50 years, the net present value of the economic loss would be $166.3 billion
For the accident
Results for the one-mile, 10-mile, and 50-mile radii are presented below in three tables by
Results for the one-mile, 10-mile, and 50-mile radii are presented below in three tables by
The 10-mile and 50-mile (
This analysis ignores the likely multiplier effects to the rest of the state and nation,
Appendix A: Understanding IMPLAN Data
The tool used to estimate the relative
IMPLAN is a widely-accepted economic analysis tool used to value economic sectors. A
IMPLAN draws from economic census data to compile county-level
Asset Value is composed of the stream of annual economic activities that create the
Employment is reported as a single number of jobs (part- and full-time) for each industry. This differs from the full-time equivalent (FTE) measure often reported that adjusts total jobs for the number of hours worked per week (typically 40 hours). The number of jobs reported in IMPLAN typically will not match the number of employed individuals, as some individuals will hold multiple jobs, and some jobs will have multiple people employed over the year. Nevertheless, the IMPLAN value is a close approximation of total employment.
Gross Regional Product (GRP) as an equivalent measure to value added which equals the sum of wage income, proprietor income, other property income, and indirect business taxes. It is akin to measures of gross domestic product (GDP), in that it indicates the portion of regional output generated by economic activity occurring within the region in question. It is the economic value added to the production process beyond purchased inputs such as raw materials, energy or labor from outside the region.
Industry or Economic Output represents the value of an industry’s total production, including both value-added and purchased inputs. The IMPLAN data are derived from a number of sources, including U.S. Bureau of Census economic censuses, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis output estimates, and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employment projections. These are aggregated up to estimate the total regional output.
Other Property Income consists of payments for rents, royalties, and dividends. Payments to individuals in the form of rents received on property, royalties from contracts, and dividends paid by corporations are included here as well as corporate profits earned by corporations. The IMPLAN estimates of other property income are derived from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Gross State Product data.
Personal Income is the measure of total household income in a region. It includes all sources of income, not just direct monetary income, such as salaries, wages, self-employment, retirement and interest, which is the metric reported by the U.S. Census Bureau. The additional 32 categories included in personal income are equity and asset returns. In regions with greater income asset holdings, such as wealthier and older communities, the average personal income can diverge significantly from the standard federal measure of household income for this reason. We report many of the most salient measures from the IMPLAN and other data sets in this impact analysis for reference. IMPLAN is used as the primary data set since IMPLAN will be used to assess any potential impacts. The other data is used to calibrate and reconcile the IMPLAN data where needed.
Proprietary Income consists of payments received by self-employed individuals as income. Any income received for payment of self-employed work, as reported on Federal tax forms, is counted as proprietary income. This includes income received by private business owners,doctors, lawyers, and the like.
Taxes on Production & Imports consist of sales and excise taxes, customs duties, property taxes, motor vehicle licenses, severance taxes, other taxes, and special assessments. These taxes do not include non-tax payments and subsidies. IMPLAN estimates of indirect business taxes are derived from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data.
Wage Income describes the total payroll costs (including benefits) of each industry in a region.It includes the wages and salaries of workers who are paid by employers, as well as benefits such as health and life insurance, retirement payments, and non-cash compensation.
1 Gross Domestic Product by Metropolitan
2 Robin Harding, “Fukushima nuclear disaster: did the
3 Jonathan M. Samet and Dayana Chanson, “Fukushima Daiichi Power Plant Disaster: How many people were affected? – 2015 Report,”
4 ‘ Real cost of Fukushima disaster will reach Y70 trillion, or triple government’s estimate: think tank’, The
5 “Japan Fukushima nuclear plant ‘clean-up costs double,” BBC
6 Takamitsu Sawa, “The future shape of Japan’s energy policy,” Japan
7 Belarus Foreign Ministry, “CHERNOBYL disaster: Why are the consequences still observed? And Why is
8 See Appendix A for more detail on the IMPLAN model.
9 “Emergency Planning Zones”. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission.https://www.nrc.gov/about-nrc/emerg-preparedness/about-emerg-preparedness/planning-zones.html
10 “Emergency Planning Zones”. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission.https://www.nrc.gov/about-nrc/emerg-preparedness/about-emerg-preparedness/planning-zones.html
11 Due to the
12 Bonney, Joseph. ‘Putting a Price on a Port Strike’. The Journal of Commerce.
14 Calculating the true market value of commercial and institutional property values en masse by zip code was determined to be beyond the
16 Table 10-Net State – and County-Assessed Value of Property Subject to General Property Taxes on the secured and Unsecured Rolls, by County. California State Board of Equalization.http://www.boe.ca.gov/annual/table10.htm
17 I-5 carries an average of 145,000 vehicles per day on that stretch (Caltrans, “Traffic Census Program,” 2016 Data,
18 Based on the SANDAG Gateway Study, a relatively small amount of freight is hauled via rail between San Diego and
19 Peter Phillips, “Lessons for post-Katrina reconstruction: A high-road vs. low-road recovery,” Economic Policy
21 Larry Wesemann, Tijana Hamilton, Steve Tabaie, and Gerald Bare, “Cost-of-Delay Studies for Freeway Closures Caused
22 Circular A-94 Appendix C Revised November 2016. Office of Management and Budget. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Circular-094C.pdf
23 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Regional Data: GDP & Personal Income Mapping,”
24 California Employment Development Department, “California Profile,”
25 San Diego and Orange counties have slightly more than 3 million employed workers. The additional 1.5 million
26 Analysis of these impacts was beyond the scope of this study due to the large scale and complexity of such an analysis that would require substantially more resources.
27 N RC, “Increase in the Maximum Amount of Primary
29 See https://implan.com/
30 Howitt, Richard E., Duncan MacEwan, and Josué Medellin-Azuara. 2011. “Drought, Jobs, and Controversy:Revisiting 2
31 Depending on the region in question, some sectors will show no economic activity. For example, IMPLAN sector7 – Tobacco Farming – shows no economic activity for most regions outside of the southern United States.
32 See https://implanhelp.zendesk .com/